At 81, President Joe Biden, who is just over 2x the median age of Americans, was forced to abandon his re-election bid on account of dotage. At over 72 years of official age, Bola Tinubu is 4x the median age of Nigerians, and seems no healthier than Biden. Shouldn’t he be stopped if he seeks re-election in 2027?
By Chudi Okoye
Only a quarter of an inch saved America from the eruption of a major political crisis, after a sniper’s gun crackled on July 13, targeting former president Donald Trump at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania. The attempted assassination had failed, only just; but it set off political reverberations which, barely a week later, upended the November 2024 US presidential election. The gunman’s bullet only grazed Trump’s ear, leaving a slight wound, but it went straight through the heart of President Joe Biden’s political career, forcing him on 21 July, after much reluctance and understandable resistance, to announce the end of his re-election bid.
Trump’s quick-thinking reaction in the frightful moments following the assassination attempt, springing up with the aid of his Secret Service agents, pumping his clenched fist in the air and urging his supporters to “Fight! Fight! Fight!” before leaving the stage, presented a cinematic image of defiance. It was not quite at the same level of brave defiance as former president Teddy Roosevelt who was shot 112 years earlier on 14 October 1912 whilst out campaigning to regain the White House. After being shot at point blank range by a mentally deranged fellow who had been stalking him for weeks, with the bullet lodged in his rib, Roosevelt still went on to deliver his address at a planned campaign rally, speaking for 90 minutes as blood soaked his shirt, before finally agreeing to be taken to a hospital. He told the crowd he’d been shot, but that “it takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose” (referring to a nickname for the political outfit he’d formed for his presidential run).
Whilst perhaps not at the level of Roosevelt’s remarkable resilience, Trump’s reaction was in its own way the stuff of political legend. It has for sure been made into one by Trump’s supporters and the dude himself. The packaging contrasted very sharply with the image of an aged and debilitated Joe Biden who bungled a presidential debate, constantly dropped lapsus linguae including embarrassing malapropisms and solecisms even at carefully staged events, had been seen shambling on and off stage or delicately clambering on to Air Force One, and was reported to have succumbed to a Covid-19 infection that grounded him even as Trump sprang back up on the political stage just days after he was nearly killed by a sniper’s bullet.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump are separated in age merely by three years and seven months, but personal issues and the burdens of office make Biden appear much older. In poll after poll, prospective voters had expressed concern about Biden’s age, his physical condition and mental acuity, and therefore his ability to perform the onerous duties of the office. It was alarm about the political consequences of this public sentiment, in relation not just to the presidential election but also its likely drag on down-ballot races, that led the Democratic Party stakeholders – lawmakers, party leaders and donors, even the liberal media – to demand (in increasingly strident tone) that Joe Biden stand down. After initial resistance, he finally gave in to the pressure on 21 July; thus, yet again, upending the November election.
We don’t know how this might impact the election. But Biden’s exit, by most expert accounts, has given his party – and the country – a fighting chance against the looming danger of Donald Trump’s return to power.
Lessons for Nigeria
In the well-known pastoral comedy, As You Like It, the melancholy character, Jaques, utters one of William Shakespeare’s most famous speeches in which he describes what he considers the seven stages of life:
All the world’s a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.
They have their exits and their entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages.
Jaques’ description of the final stages of life, the 6th and 7th, is particularly striking:
The sixth age shifts
Into the lean and slippered pantaloon
With spectacles on nose and pouch on side,
His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide
For his shrunk shank, and his big manly voice,
Turning again toward childish treble, pipes
And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is second childishness and mere oblivion,
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.
There have been not a few blighted cases in world history when men sought to defy gravity and this very simple Shakespearean portrait of ageing, clinging on to power and refusing to gracefully exit the stage even when well-advanced in age. Supported by celebrated thinkers such as Plato (who favored rule by wise, old philosopher kings and wrote in his famous work, The Republic, that “it is for the elder man to rule and for the younger to submit”) and Plutarch (who claimed in his Moralia [Book X, 54] that “States, when they are in difficulties or in fear, yearn for the rule of the elder men”), rule by oldies, a.k.a. gerontocracy, has manifested historically in many cultures, from the ancient Greek city-state of Sparta to China and the Soviet Union in the 20th century, as well as theocratic states such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Vatican, among others.
Today, although the global trend is towards a younger generation of political leadership, there are still several countries ruled by extremely old men, as heads of state or even heads of government. They range from Mahmoud Abbas, who is nearly 89 and has been serving as President of the Palestinian National Authority since 2005, to the almost 88-year old Pope Francis, Sovereign of the Vatican City State and 85-year old Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran. Not to be forgotten are Salman bin Abduaziz al Saud, King of Saudi Arabia, who is pushing 89; Harald V, King of Norway, getting on 88; Mishal I, who became Emir of Kuwait last year, aged 83; as well as the presidents of Ireland and Italy, respectively Michael D. Higgins and Sergio Mattarella, who are both 83.
There are others too, advanced in age though slightly younger, who wield significant power as heads of government in their countries. These include Alexander Van der Bellen, the president of Austria who is now 80 and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who is approaching 75.
Africa too has its share of presidential graybeards. There’s for instance Paul Biya, now nudging 92, who has been president of Cameroon since 1982 (before that prime minister from 1975) and is currently the oldest serving leader of a state. There’s Nangolo Mbumba, who this year became President of Namibia at almost 83, having held office as vice-president for the previous six years. Alassane Ouattara, now in his 14th year as President of Ivory Coast, clocked 82 in January this year. Nana Akufo-Addo, the Ghanaian president, is 80. He is only a few months older than Yoweri Museveni, current president of Uganda who helped to topple Idi Amin (1971–79) and later Milton Obote (1980–85) but has remained president for over 38 years – since January 1986!
In Nigeria, the ages of successive heads of state, whether under military rule or democratic setting, have hardly nudged these outliers. In the 2nd Republic, of course, some of the country’s political grandees did come out of retirement to contest presidential elections. Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Chief Obafemi Awolowo were aged 75 and 70 respectively when they contested the 1979 presidential election; and they’d turned 79 and 74 when they returned for the 1983 contest. But of course, neither of them won, both losing in 1979 to a then 54-year old Shehu Shagari. Until the emergence of Muhammadu Buhari as civilian president in 2015, the average age of Nigeria’s civilian heads of state from Tafawa Balewa had been 59, compared to the average of 43 years for the country’s military heads of state. But with Buhari’s return, the age trend spiked. Buhari was pushing 73 when he emerged as democratic president in May 2015, a clear 25 years older than the average inceptual age of all previous incumbents. And he finished his second term nearly 81. As president, Buhari had persistent health issues, traveling abroad on medical trip (on Nigeria’s tab) for a record 200 days.
The age trend has remained higher than the historic average under the current president, Bola Tinubu, who is officially 72 – leading to what I described in a previous writing on this issue as “creeping caducity” in the country’s leadership. And, to make matters worse, Tinubu appears to be in no better shape health-wise.
In the face of US president, Joe Biden’s decision to terminate his re-election bid, there is a serious question hanging over Tinubu, should he – as seems likely – seek re-election in 2027. Biden was seeking re-election on what he and his supporters consider a solid governing record in his first term. Compared to Biden, Bola Tinubu has so far run a listless administration, with no meaningful achievement more than one year in, and Nigerians suffering unimaginable distress under his rule. Yet, his poor record, which shows no sign of improvement in the rest of his current tenure, will likely not deter Tinubu from seeking re-election.
This leads to an interesting juxtaposition and a serious question for Nigerians. President Joe Biden, at 81, is a little over twice as old as the average American; yet, despite his arguably impressive governing record, he was forced to abandon his re-election bid on account of dotage. At his official age of 72, Bola Tinubu is four times as old as the average Nigerian, and he seems no healthier than Biden. If he continues to underperform, again as seems likely, what would be the justification for his re-election, or even the basis for his seeking it?
Joe Biden did not end his re-election bid without a fight. He had won a commanding share of pledged Democratic Party delegates and was coasting to official nomination at the party’s convention this August. He had the record with which he believed he could present a winning case to the electorate. Yet, a string of factors – his poor performance at the presidential debate, intimations of persistent health issues, poor polling results, intense pressure from the media and party stakeholders – compelled Biden eventually to hang up his gloves.
Biden salvaged his reputation and legacy by following the Shakespearean rule about exiting the stage at the appropriate time. In doing so, he brought a fitting fortissimo coda to his long career in public service. If Tinubu rears up for re-election in 2027, refusing to exit the stage, will Nigerian stakeholders be able to tell him where to stick his ambition?
