ADC Has a Chance, But Needs Savvy Strategy to Succeed in 2027

To prevail against APC’s entrenched machinery, the ADC coalition must address internal discord and any structural weaknesses, and go beyond a basic political playbook.

By Chudi Okoye

It could fizzle out even before it fires, or flare into a force that fundamentally reshapes Nigeria’s political future. The latest opposition stirrings in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general elections, gathering under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), may prove another damp squib in the country’s long history of coalition mirages. Recent reports of wrangles within its ranks sadly suggest this possibility. Yet, if the protagonists persist – and if, shall we say, the gods are benevolent – their efforts may yet flower into a forceful formation capable of facing down the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027. More than this – and if we dare hope: were the coalition to overcome its troubles and even find its footing as a formidable front, it could fuel a fierce fight that forges a new frontier for democracy and competitive politics in Nigeria.

I recognize the many contingencies, the conditional “ifs” framing this scenario. Skeptics already scoff at the initiative, calling it a “coalition to nowhere” – harsh, but not entirely uncharitable. The ADC alliance is embryonic, and emerging signs suggest some fragility and lack of coherence. However, should momentum build – should the currently disjointed actors resolve their differences – Nigeria could approach a moment of rare political drama: the proverbial clash between an immovable object and a potentially irresistible force.

In the philosophical paradox where such a clash is posited, the outcome is always elusive. Classical physics, Chinese dialectics, even Western scholasticism balk at the confrontation of absolutes. The only constant in such collisions is disruption – whether through mutual exhaustion, narrow breakthrough, or systemic change. If Nigeria is headed for such disruption in 2027, it could jolt the country toward democratic renewal.

But we are a long way from a political thriller. The mechanics of the ADC coalition are just cranking up, with signs of internal stress already surfacing. There are other serious challenges ahead, not least the overlapping ambitions of the major players and their fractious antecedents – all of which I’ll get into shortly. In fact as things stand, the default trajectory for the elections remains one of inertia, with the null hypothesis favoring the ruling party. But if the opposition coalition keeps building momentum – if it can find coherence and rise above its contradictions – that hypothesis may yet be shattered.

For the opposition to shatter that hypothesis, it must expose the APC’s fatal decade of governance, a record so ruinous it should erase the party’s structural advantages as incumbent.

Case Against APC
In any functioning democracy, the ruling party must periodically re-earn its mandate, not inherit it by default.  On that score, APC will enter the 2027 race bearing a heavy burden of underperformance. Over more than a decade in power, first under Muhammadu Buhari and now Bola Tinubu, the party has presided over an economy in retreat, a state in disrepair, and a society in deep despair. Once considered a corrective to the corrosive Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), APC has instead overseen a cataclysmic national regression.

When APC assumed office in 2015, Nigeria’s GDP stood at $546 billion, the largest in Africa. As of 2024, even after a recent statistical rebase by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), that figure has shrunk to just $243 billion – a staggering collapse of more than 55%. The ‘giant of Africa’ now ranks fourth on the continent. Inflation has soared above 30%, up from around 9% in 2015, with Nigerians facing record-high food prices, surging transport costs, rising unemployment, and deepening poverty. The naira has tumbled from around ₦197 to the dollar in 2015 to over ₦1,550 today. The administration attributes this mainly to devaluation and exchange-rate unification, but it is explained as well by deep structural weaknesses in the economy.

While foreign reserves have nudged up, the country’s debt has ballooned by 52% from $63.8 billion in 2015 to $97.2 billion as of June, and might soon exceed the 2023 peak of $114.4 billion with Tinubu’s $21 billion external borrowing plan to plug shortfalls in the 2025 budget. Debt servicing now consumes over 90% of the chronically low government revenue, with the debt burden paralyzing fiscal policy and edging Nigeria toward a debt trap. Attempts at subsidy reform, though necessary, have been carried out without safety nets, unleashing widespread hardship even as the administration maintains an expensive cost of governance.

Beyond the economy, security remains fragile. Though some gains have been made against insurgents in the Northeast, other flashpoints remain – from kidnapping syndicates in the Northwest to separatist tensions in the Southeast. The persistent insecurity further deters investment, constraining mobility and the ruling party’s capacity to govern. Most corrosive of all has been APC’s retreat from national inclusion: a bid for survival through sectional patronage – seen under Buhari and now Tinubu – as its broader legitimacy erodes.

To be sure, some of the governance challenges predate APC rule. But after more than a decade in power, the Aimless Party in Charge hasn’t only failed to deliver, it has deepened the dysfunction. Despite retaining formidable assets – electoral machinery, patronage networks, and Tinubu’s tactical acumen – the party is stumped and exhausted.

This, in sum, is the thesis of the upcoming election. Or what it should be. With the ruling party’s abysmal record, there’s clearly an opening for the opposition bloc, if it doesn’t turn into Another Doomed Coalition. The question then is whether the opposition can seize the moment, or whether – like a mirage glimpsed on the horizon – this remains an opportunity within sight but beyond reach.

Coalition Prospects
In the telling of coalition leaders, the initiative got off to a solid start and, despite current vicissitudes, remains on course. I recently spoke with ADC founder Ralph Nwosu, who said his party’s emergence as coalition platform culminates his long-held vision of a formidable opposition bloc, one that once won backing from former president Olusegun Obasanjo. Nwosu led the resignation of ADC’s national working committee to allow for a new leadership structure – a “patriotic sacrifice,” he called it, but also savvy rebranding for a previously marginal formation. He hopes this “selfless” gesture might inspire a new political ethos and foster strategic cooperation among incoming partners – especially the big names likely to vie for the coalition ticket.

I came away impressed by Nwosu’s commitment. But beyond his earnest vision lies a messier reality. If the APC is vulnerable heading into 2027, the ADC-led opposition bloc is far from ready. Though now nominally led by retired brigadier-general David Mark, the coalition is less a disciplined formation than a restless assembly of political exiles, bound more by rejection of Tinubu than any shared vision. Whether this can be forged into a cohesive, electable platform remains uncertain.

The contrast with the 2013 merger that birthed the APC is instructive. That was a formal fusion of parties – ACN, CPC, ANPP, and a faction of APGA – creating a unified electoral machine with national reach. The ADC effort, by contrast, is a looser convergence of anti-Tinubu actors from PDP, Labour, and even APC. That in itself is not unusual – coalitions can form without merging – but without deeper integration or a shared structure, they risk devolving into opportunistic rivalries. Many entrants bring no transferable machinery, having been estranged from their former perches. This exposes the bloc to familiar weaknesses: limited reach, threadbare funding, and reliance on charisma over structure.

These deficiencies also help explain the rising tensions within the ADC. Although the collective resignation of the party’s executive is hailed, enabling a smooth transition to coalition leadership, some dissidents see it as a hostile takeover. The internal backlash has been swift: one prominent figure, Nafiu Bala, has now declared himself interim national chairman, rejecting the coalition leaders as “strangers” and threatening litigation. This turf war, framed as constitutional dispute, also reflects deeper anxieties – about identity, control, and ideological dilution.

Beneath the surface are broader fissures over credibility and ambition. Some ADC old guard are disillusioned by the inclusion of career politicians like Atiku Abubakar, seen as a perennial aspirant and transactional tactician. Atiku arrives from a fractured PDP, without clear institutional backing, as do other arrivistes like Rotimi Amaechi and Nasir El-Rufai. Peter Obi maintains ambiguous duality, straddling the coalition while still technically tied to his divided Labour Party. Frustration with his overture has encouraged rival ambitions, including that of his 2023 running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed.

There are also concerns about the dynamics of the ADC presidential ticket itself. Atiku’s evident interest is perceived in some quarters as a Northern power grab, particularly galling after what’s seen as his usurpation of the South in 2023. For his part, Obi may consider 2027 his final viable window before the informal North-South power rotation locks him out until 2039, by which time he may have lost interest, his support base eroded, and age may well be a constraint. Some Northern strategists, wary of ceding the presidency for two terms to a candidate like Obi, are mulling the return of former president Goodluck Jonathan as a one-term compromise – a figure that could help assuage Igbo presidential aspiration, though from the South-South.

What emerges is a coalition burdened by overlapping ambitions, diverging geopolitical calculations, and a deficit of trust. Without clear architecture and unifying leadership, the ADC alliance risks becoming not a platform for national renewal, but a cacophonous procession toward disintegration.

Yet all is not lost. These contradictions are not destiny; they are challenges to be resolved – the very stuff of politics. With inclusive bargaining and smart institutional design, the coalition can still find its footing.

Coalition Strategy
Despite the ruling party’s dismal record, the opposition cannot defeat it by relying on a basic political playbook. To unseat the APC in 2027, the ADC coalition must go beyond strategic ABCs. It needs something extraordinary – both in scale and sophistication – to overcome the advantages of incumbency. The APC, after all, pulled off the first-ever presidential-level defeat of a ruling party in Nigeria. It is adept at this game. ADC must level up to stand a chance, especially with the tactician Tinubu playing defense.

At the start of this essay, I invoked philosophy and physics to frame the coming contest as a theoretical clash between an immovable object and an irresistible force. That clash remains possible, but only if the opposition coalition becomes truly irresistible. And that will require far greater coherence, creativity, and discipline than it currently exhibits.

To be fair, all political coalitions require time to harmonize. The 2013 APC merger, often cited as precedent, also wrestled with internal contradictions before consolidating. That said, the current discord in the ADC coalition – from ideological incoherence to leadership squabbles – must be managed with dexterity, not despair, if there’s to be a meaningful path forward.

I do not presume to dictate a roadmap. But some fundamentals are urgent. First among them is internal consolidation. Ralph Nwosu and the prior ADC leadership, alongside interim coalition managers, must act swiftly to soothe internal dissent and restore institutional legitimacy. Factionalism helped derail opposition chances in 2023, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If the coalition cannot contain its centrifugal tendencies, how can it credibly hope to govern a fractious democracy like Nigeria? Internal reconciliation is not mere housekeeping; it is rehearsal for governance. ADC, govern thyself.

A tactical transition team should be convened at once, charged with clarifying ideological goals, defining leadership structures, and engineering procedures resistant to entropy. The simmering dissent must not be allowed to fester, exposing factions to external pressure or inducement.  

The thorniest issue for the coalition will likely be the choice of presidential flag-bearer. The ADC needs its new celebrity entrants to make an electoral impact in 2027; they, in turn, need a consolidated bloc to mount a credible challenge. It is, in theory, a reciprocal bargain. Yet these heavyweights carry significant political baggage, which could weigh down the alliance. Extreme care is needed in making this crucial choice.

In my view, the coalition should apply a simple “political physics” formula, enabling it to overcome APC’s entrenched advantage. ADC must ignite a force potent enough to ripple through party ranks, grassroots, and the wider electorate. That force is enthusiasm. To this end, I propose the equation: E = MCᴿ. Enthusiasm (E) is generated when momentum (M) – the product of mass and velocity, as in physics – is activated by an exceptional candidate (Cᴿ) with the highest quotient of four Rs – Recognition, Reputation, Resources, and Reach. The nod to Einstein’s famous equation, E = MC², is deliberate: the opposition needs explosive force, not incremental drift.

The 2023 results validated this equation. Obi inspired energy but lacked structure and reach. Atiku wielded machinery but faced internal friction and voter fatigue. Tinubu, though victorious, secured only a narrow plurality amid record-low turnout – buoyed by money and muscle, but short on charisma and reputation.

ADC must find a candidate who embodies all elements in the equation. Aspirants will press their claims, but the coalition must apply this simple test: who can generate the force – the enthusiasm – needed to counter incumbent advantage? It must look closely, perhaps beyond headline names, for a breakthrough candidate suited to the moment.

Nigeria stands at a crossroads between democratic renewal and deepening decline. We’ll soon see whether ADC rises to the occasion, or dissolves into dysfunction.